End of Long Peace, Start of Long Haul?

But the Russian invasion of Ukraine has ignited fears that the long peace may be ending. Last week saw a dramatic policy reversal in Germany, with the new chancellor, Olaf Scholz, announcing an immediate €100 billion package for investment in the country’s defense. Scholz also announced that Germany intends to begin meeting the NATO goal of spending 2 percent of its annual GDP on defense.

The chancellor’s announcement took many by surprise. Aside from oil prices, only defense stocks such as Lockheed Martin were on the rise, in expectation of a wave of investment from Germany. But that wasn’t the only jolt. Germany’s decision to terminate the planned Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia shocked many.

The prevailing wisdom held that Europe didn’t have the stomach to stand up to Putin. If they did, he would cut off their energy supplies midwinter. But Europe has reacted in unexpected fashion. Since the outbreak of war, the previous combination of impotence and naivete has given way to a new firmness. Europe (and not just the UK) is united against Putin, and is even willing to take concrete steps that pose serious economic risk to the union.

“The EU’s decisions to strengthen sanctions against the Kremlin and to purchase and deliver weapons to Ukraine are remarkable displays of European resolve,” said Stephen J. Flanagan, a senior Rand Corporation political scientist who has held several senior government positions, most recently as special assistant to the president and senior director for defense policy and strategy at the National Security Council from 2013 to 2015.