THE CURRENT → THE ROSE REPORT Issue 848 · February 10, 2021

Gaming Israel’s 4th Election

Bibi heads the polling pack, but Bennett is kingmaker

Gaming Israel’s 4th Election

 

1. The Likud Grabs a Big Lead

Binyamin Netanyahu simplified his strategy this time around. Tout his foreign policy accomplishments. Vaccinate the country. Open the economy. Then enter Election Day proclaiming Israel as the first country to conquer COVID-19.

So far it’s working, yet it’s not a riskless strategy. The better Bibi looks in the polls, the more likely the Biden administration is to break its silence and put pressure on him, perhaps expediting negotiations with Iran as a lever. A new coronavirus mutation could trigger a fourth lockdown. And even if Israelis are healthy enough to bentsh gomel before Election Day, Bibi will face furious voters who’ve lost livelihoods to the pandemic, and a grumpy citizenry who presume Netanyahu is guilty until proven innocent of corruption.

No polls show the Likud retaining all 36 seats it currently holds, but it’s still the political brand with the strongest slate. If they can hang on to 33 or 34, they will hold the upper hand in forming a coalition.

2. “Anyone but Bibi” Is a Dud

In politics, it’s not enough to say who you’re against. You have to tell voters what you’re for. Benny Gantz won between 33 and 35 seats in the last three elections leading the anti-Bibi camp before caving to it and playing second fiddle in a Netanyahu-led government. Gantz proved he is not a political big-leaguer, and party members deserted him in droves.

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