Iran Is Not Israel’s Only Dilemma

After nearly two years of constant vigilance for air raid sirens after October 7, Israeli citizens have enjoyed only a brief and fragile respite. Will the current calm last? Will renewed conflict with Iran bring resolution, or further chaos and doubt? Does Israel have viable options if relations with the US turn brittle? The stakes could not be higher as Prime Minister Netanyahu makes an emergency visit this week to meet with President Trump

1) President Trump was insistent that Operation Midnight Hammer — America’s massive precision strikes in June —“completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities. If so, why is the US negotiating with Iran if it already achieved its stated objective?

Trump’s statements are often premature and don’t always stand up to scrutiny. As I noted then in these pages (“The Clock Strikes Midnight,” Issue 1067), it would take months to accurately assess the damage. Recent satellite images show Iran engaged in salvage and recovery at the bombed sites, and while most experts believe the centrifuges producing enriched uranium are down, some may remain. The main worry is the location of Iran’s stockpile of a half-ton of enriched uranium, theoretically enough for about ten nuclear weapons. With enough time and breathing room, Iran might resume enrichment activities. Either Trump, Israel, or both must act before the threat grows.

2) Prime Minister Netanyahu also insists that he and President Trump operate in lockstep. Isn’t his sudden departure for Washington a sign that daylight has opened between them?

While Iran’s nuclear capabilities remain theoretical, its ballistic missile capabilities are real. Last June, Iran fired more than 550 ballistic missiles and launched more than 1,000 drones at Israel, killing 32 people, injuring more than 3,000, and resulting in more than 40,000 damage claims. Intelligence officials fear Iran could fire chemical or biological missiles in a future attack. No matter how well Bibi and Trump work together, Netanyahu fears Trump’s penchant for dealmaking could lead to a replay of President Obama’s 2015 deal with Iran, which focused on nuclear enrichment and ignored ballistic missiles. Israel can’t live with a deal that doesn’t address the full spectrum of risks.

3) Israel is not the only country trying to influence Trump. The US has close ties with Arab countries, which are urging the president to hold off on an attack. Whose view will prevail?

Arab countries fear that Iran would retaliate to a US attack by shutting down the region’s oil shipping routes, inflicting serious economic damage, so they’re pressuring Trump to pursue the diplomatic track. The Trump administration is also sensitive to a spike in oil prices that could reignite inflation and make gasoline unaffordable again.

It’s important to note that Israel is not seeking an attack that could provoke a serious Iranian counterattack, joined by Iran’s proxies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. Israel would also prefer a path in which the US could apply sufficient military and financial pressure to spark a new round of protests and topple Iran’s government. Trump also promised Iranian protestors that help is on the way.