What scenarios are looming that could deny Trump’s quest? How likely are they to play out?
Republicans who hoped that an alternative to Trump would emerge during 2023 have been sorely disappointed. Ron DeSantis positioned himself as Trump “without the baggage,” but the Florida governor burdened himself with bungling campaign managers, uninspiring public appearances, and an inability to leverage negative press to rally supporters, as Trump does with skill. While Iowa caucuses are known for producing upsets, the Des Moines Register, which is also a reputable pollster, reported that no candidate has ever blown a double-digit lead, which would render Trump’s 50% lead insurmountable.
However, Nikki Haley’s trajectory is rising in New Hampshire. Two polls — St. Anselm and CBS — have Haley within 15% of Trump. The New Hampshire–based American Research Group (ARG) now shows Haley trailing Trump by just four points, but their numbers are suspect. The renowned FiveThirtyEight political blog gives ARG a mediocre C-plus rating for calling the winner correctly in only 75% of their surveys, and even when they’re right, they often miss by more than a standard margin of error.
Bottom line Iowa looks like an easy win for Trump; New Hampshire might be competitive for Haley. If she finishes a close second, DeSantis, Christie, and Ramaswamy could drop out, setting up a two-way race between Trump and Haley for South Carolina’s February 24 primary, keeping the race interesting for at least another month.
February 8 may overtake January 6 as the most controversial date in recent American history. That’s when the US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on whether the Colorado Supreme Court had the authority to strike Donald Trump’s name from that state’s primary ballot because of his alleged role in the Capitol Hill riots of January 6, 2021 — or the insurrection, if you prefer.
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