Israel rolls dice again as third elections loom
Prime Minister Netanyahu dodged one legal bullet when the Supreme Court rejected petitions demanding his immediate resignation, but the court did ask Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit to rule whether Israeli law permits a prime minister facing indictments to form a coalition. Mandelblit is unlikely to insert himself into the picture before the Likud’s December 26 primary, but his ruling could influence the national election. Netanyahu must announce within two weeks if he will seek parliamentary immunity from the indictments — immunity that the Knesset can’t grant without convening a special session. Even if they meet, Bibi won’t have the 61 votes he needs to shield himself, until and unless he wins big in March, gets the green light from Mandelblit, and succeeds in forming a majority government.
This all casts a pall over Bibi’s campaign. Some polls show up to 40% of the electorate will either vote for a different party on March 2 or are considering it. That reflects the strong sentiment that after two inconclusive elections, Israelis are looking to shake things up.
Enter Gideon Saar to create friction from within. Saar poses a serious challenge to Netanyahu’s grip on the Likud and makes a convincing case that there is no reason to believe that Bibi will be any more capable of forming a coalition on try number three. Saar has the ability to make strong points without a whiff of arrogance or antagonism. That already sets him apart from the more combative Bibi. Saar also doesn’t need to make deals to get positive media coverage. His wife, Geula Even, is a veteran television journalist respected by both the right and the left, providing her hubby with some protektziya.
Saar is a well-qualified and seasoned politician in his own right, but history is against him. Likud voters have never unseated a party leader in a primary. Despite the ongoing media prattle about “Netanyahu fatigue,” there are no overt signs that the majority of Likud loyalists are yawning.
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