November swing states; here's what to watch
Arguably as important as the question of who will be president is: Who controls Congress? Democrats hold the Senate by a razor-thin two-seat majority. The Republicans control the House by a 217–213 margin; if the five vacant seats swing to Democrats, it will flip Congress. Whichever party holds power in Congress can help or hurt the sitting president. Let’s dive into the most critical races that will determine the direction of the 119th Congress and the first two years of the next presidential term.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has identified 22 “toss up” seats in November — 11 Republican and 11 Democratic.
Space won’t permit detailed analyses of 22 individual races. In brief, many of these are “crossover” seats: the district voted one way for Congress and the other way for president in 2020. Republicans won in districts carried by Biden, and Democrats were elected in districts won by Trump.
How these districts will go in the 2024 election is hard to predict. On one hand, voters have already demonstrated their willingness to split their ticket, which might favor the incumbents. On the other hand, a red or blue wave could sweep these outliers out of office, regardless of what occurred two years ago. The critical question is what emotions will drive voter turnout. Will more Republicans want to express their anger against Biden on the state of the economy and illegal immigration? Or will more Democrats want to make sure Trump doesn’t get a second chance?
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