7 key scenarios that could shape November’s outcome
But as we’ve noted in this column many times, “a week is a long time in politics,” and five months from now is whole generations living and dying in swirling media cycles and ever-changing political currents. I believe that the conviction is a factor, but there are seven other factors that could upend the race, any of which are plausible.
Historically, most presidential candidates pick a vice president (VP) that helps balance the ticket, and although it might produce a temporary news cycle win, it doesn’t lead to serious help at the polls. But what if Trump were to pick a VP who is a game-changer? For example, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has consistently been drawing support away from both Trump and Biden, depending on the issue. What if Trump were to convince RFK Jr. to run with him? This would lead to both an enthusiasm boost and a win for Trump with desperately needed independents.
The game-changer VP pick could work equally well for President Biden. Kamala Harris remains unpopular; a new Politico-Morning Consult poll showed her with a net disapproval rating of 52%. That is a startling number that is likely to hurt Biden’s reelection chances. Should Biden choose to replace her, it would be unconventional, and could change his campaign.
Trump will likely pick a game-changer VP pick. There’s no downside for him. I still don’t see Kamala Harris being replaced, but should Trump’s VP start highlighting the Harris negatives, we may see a change. This entire VP dynamic is critical to watch.
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