Trump’s Big Mo, Six Takeaways

An animated George H. W. Bush said this after winning the 1980 Iowa caucuses. He was right. Winning a presidential caucus or primary generates big momentum. But has anybody seen momentum like Trump has built up? Defeating opponents by double digits isn’t just “Big Mo,” it’s “Gigantic Mo.” That should fire up the Republican base and carry him to the nomination.

The question looking forward now centers on the general election. Pundits have all now moved on from wondering who can beat Trump for the GOP nomination to wondering if Trump can beat Biden. Now that he has momentum, there are six things Trump can do to greatly improve his chances of being reelected.

1. Framing the 2020 election. Americans won’t support candidates perceived as losers. According to the University of Virginia Center for Politics, out of 46 rematch Senate elections, in which a defeated former incumbent returned against a victorious challenger, only six resulted in the former upending the latter.

Only a few former presidents have ever even tried for rematches. It’s typically not a winning formula, as former presidents are perceived as losers. Trump has tried to portray himself as the true winner of the 2020 election, and he will likely continue to avoid the “loser” label, which can bring down rematch candidates. Polls show that as much as 70% of the GOP base believes the narrative that Trump didn’t lose.

Will this work with moderates? Trump’s team will try to make the case.