Iran Emboldened by US Inaction

Six weeks ago, there was a dramatic development in the Middle East. The Iranian attack on Saudi oil facilities was a test, one that allowed Tehran to conclude that the United States is a paper tiger — and that the Saudis are powerless without them. Likewise, the Iranians saw that President Trump will betray his allies, whether the Gulf states or the Kurds.

The Iranians now believe that Israel stands alone in its struggle against them, and that they can engage Israel directly without fear of retribution from the US. This is a lifeline for Iran, which is currently suffering from devastating international sanctions. By targeting Israel, Tehran hopes to control the Middle East.

The security threat was expressed clearly by Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi, who warned last week of the real possibility of an escalation into all-out war. “Israel is currently dealing with a large number of enemies and security fronts at once,” Kochavi explained. “On both the northern and southern fronts, the situation is fragile and tense, and things could spiral out of control rapidly despite the fact that our enemies are not interested in war.” The chief of staff added that the IDF is carrying out intensive preparations for such an eventuality.

According to Kochavi, Israel’s main defense challenge lies in the north, where Iran is attempting to entrench itself in Syria and build Hezbollah’s precision-guided missile program. “Both cases are initiatives led by Iran, being carried out in the territory of countries whose sovereignty is compromised,” Kochavi emphasized, referring to Syria and Lebanon, but hinting also at Iraq, where the Iranians have set up puppet militia groups. According to foreign reports, Israel has carried out several strikes in Iraq against Iranian militias and military installations.