Is Trump Trapped By His Own Vision?

Arms deals don’t happen quickly in Washington, and fulfilling MBS’s wish list, which reportedly includes 48 of the world’s most advanced stealth fighter jets, requires a lengthy vetting process, including Congressional approval. With Turkey also requesting F-35s and Egypt seeking advanced F-15s equipped with long-range rockets, it’s clear that the starting gun has been fired for a new Middle East arms race. This raises questions about America’s long-standing commitment to maintaining Israel’s qualitative military edge (QME), which for decades has ensured Israeli military superiority.

There are many ways to compensate Israel, such as selling it B-2 bunker-buster bombers, like the ones the US used to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, or selling F-35s to Arab states that are not as fully outfitted as Israel’s F-35s, which are upgraded with advanced capabilities. These ideas will be raised during upcoming negotiations between the US and Israel over the extension of the next Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), which will determine the size and scope of US military aid to Israel from 2028 onward.

Israel’s immediate concern is the US plan for the day after in Gaza, which could end up resembling the day before if both sides aren’t careful. This issue is still evolving, with Ron Dermer, in his new role as Prime Minister Netanyahu’s special envoy, visiting the US this week to ensure the IDF maintains its freedom of action to respond to any Hamas attempts to rebuild its fighting capabilities.

At press time, US plans reportedly called for a UN Security Council mandate in Gaza to authorize an international security force to keep Israel and Hamas apart for the next two years while waiting for a “reformed” Palestinian Authority (PA) to take over after that. No nation has yet committed to sending troops. If it comes to fruition, Israel, Egypt, and the PA will oversee the process, while two separate Muslim blocs, either Saudi Arabia and the UAE or Qatar and Turkey, would lead the effort. Israeli think tanks are divided over which option is better for Israel. Some favor the Saudis and the UAE, who have initiated deradicalization efforts in their own countries, including religious reeducation and changing school textbooks, to counter extremist ideologies. Others argue that Turkey and Qatar can better pressure Hamas to disarm.