Rule #7: Political predictions are an inexact science
This year on election night, I felt as if I was in two worlds. After voting early, I found myself in South Florida, where I found the populace in a state of euphoria. The combination of the name DeSantis and the word “president” crept into the conversation of nearly everyone I encountered.
But late that night, I started receiving alerts from the rest of the country. Democratic operatives texted confidently that the lack of a “red wave” meant Biden was a shoo-in for reelection. Trump loyalists, meanwhile, claimed the results showed that their man’s return was assured.
A lot of this, to be sure, was just spin. To make accurate political predictions, you have to follow a basic formula: Electoral Maps + Incumbency = Crystal Ball. Let’s look at this piece by piece.
After elections conclude, voting maps are made public, and every elected official can trace the red, blue, and purple trends in granular detail — down to your house. Yes, your house.
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