As the midterms loom, what’s motivating Americans to vote?
When isn’t the economy the major concern facing voters? People’s sense of well-being is always partially based on their financial security, but this is a very individual emotion. Republicans have been campaigning hard against economic mismanagement under the Biden administration, but much of the blame is due to the Federal Reserve Board, whose chairman, Jay Powell, was a Trump appointee (even though Biden reappointed him). The Fed was way too late in raising interest rates to tackle the rapid rise in inflation, and when they acted, it was with a heavy hand.
But most of the damage is probably done. Interest rates have risen from near-zero to 4.5% on the two-year treasury, but it’s not going from here to 9%. Inflation also spiked from 2% to more than 8%, but it’s unlikely to hit double digits. Gas prices are down too. After peaking above $5 a gallon in the summer, it’s fallen to a national average of $3.76. There’s lots of talk about a recession, but it may end up just talk after third-quarter GDP just came in a positive 2.6%. Unemployment is a low 3.5% and not one state has a jobless rate higher than 4.5%. That being the case, the economy may have become more of a political talking point than a turning point.
The Pew survey listed gun control and violence as two separate issues. For the sake of brevity, let’s lump it into one category. The debate over gun ownership versus gun control always sparks intense reactions on both sides. Personal safety has become an everyday issue, as well as a campaign theme, with a new Gallup Poll showing that 56% of Americans say crime in their neighborhoods has risen in the past year.
This is a major campaign issue in Wisconsin, home of the Kyle Rittenhouse case. Senator Ron Johnson, once seen as one of the vulnerable Republican incumbents, has grabbed a lead in the polls over Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, a progressive Democrat who opposes cash bail, favors stricter gun control, and whose campaign has accepted funding from five groups that support defunding the police (even though Barnes himself says he’s against it).
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