WERE WE READY?

An important piece by economist Pierre Lemieux in the libertarian Cato Institute’s journal Regulation asks the question: “Suppose a wholly impartial observer, trained in economics, visited the United States in December 2019 and, after looking around for a bit, was asked if the country was ready for a big economic shock. What would he have said?”

The economic consequences of the pandemic would have been severe, regardless of which administration was in office when it hit. The only fair question to be asked, then, is whether this administration’s economic policies enhanced or undermined America’s preparedness for that shock.

Mr. Lemieux begins with several caveats: A president is constrained by the Constitution and the other branches of government; the policies of previous presidents and Congresses create economic trends that are hard to undo; and since the US economy represents only 15% of the world economy, it is vulnerable to the vicissitudes of the other 85%.

The good news of the last three years is that during “the first three years of Trump’s presidency, the economy expanded, unemployment and poverty fell, wages increased, taxes were cut, the stock market moved upward, and some reforms of federal regulation were introduced.” But the other good news is that