The 2026 midterms are still 14 months away. How can measuring voter sentiment now possibly predict the future?
Thankfully, we have a closer election this November, which should tell us a lot about which political party is in the driver’s seat for 2026. New Jersey and Virginia each have elections for governor in less than seven weeks. These two states, which were among the original 13 American colonies, are our most reliable indicators of future political party gains. Let’s understand why and see what they can predict.
A weathervane shows which direction the wind is blowing, which is often a reliable indicator of how good or bad the weather will be. In this case, the weathervane is this off-year election, and the “wind” is the president of the United States.
With off-year elections like this, the more energized party is the one that lost the preceding presidential election. With a Democratic president, Republicans who lost a year earlier are highly motivated to turn out. With a Republican president currently in office, the calculation is the same for the Democrats. Republicans happy with their president have less reason to go vote, while Democrats feeling the nonstop Trump “wind” in their faces are keen to “send a message” and cast ballots in large numbers.
Virginia’s history as a weathervane started in 1977, when a Republican governor was elected after Democrat Jimmy Carter won the White House in 1976. It continued when a Democratic governor took the statehouse in 1981 after Republican Ronald Reagan was victorious in 1980. Since then, Virginia hasn’t looked back; for over four decades, the state has always elected a governor from the party opposing the sitting president, except once in 2017.
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